Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind drifted slopes, and human triggered avalanches are likely. On slopes that face W-N-SE, the new snow load has also increased the danger for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche failing on a buried, persistent weak layer. Most low elevation, and south facing terrain has a MODERATE danger. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills, and know how to avoid steep, wind drifted terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    3

    Wind drifted snow continues to be our primary concern. Snow over the past week has blown into deep, dense drifts along upper elevation ridge crests, and even down into mid elevations, primarily on slopes that face NW-N-E. Shift wind directions have also deposited snow on to southerly aspects at upper elevations, and we now have a myriad of old and new wind slabs. Avoid slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance. Cracking in the snow surface is a sign of instability.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    4

    The snow load from last week was a pretty good test for the snowpack, and the lack of natural activity involving persistent weak layers indicates that the pack is gaining strength. Unfortunately, layers do still exist, and now it's becoming a bit more like rolling the dice. In addition to our early December faceted layer, other weak layers are turning up higher in the snowpack, and they aren't just confined to northerly aspects. Pro observer Travis Nauman turned back from an upper elevation SE facing slope after his ECT produced propagation on several interfaces. See his observation for more details. The bottom line is you will have to do a slope by slope analysis before considering terrain steeper than 35 degrees.

Recent Activity

I and others, have finally been able to get a look at things under partly sunny skies the past couple of days. Avalanche activity from last week's storm cycle appears to be mainly isolated wind slabs within the most recent snow. The deepest slide I saw came out of a steep, rocky, north facing pocket at around 11,000' just east of Colorado Bowl. I saw it from a distance, but it looked deep enough to have involved a persistent weak layer.

Special Announcement

Grand County will not be plowing the road to Geyser Pass Traihead today. Many vehicles made it up yesterday. Expect to find 3"-5" of snow with ruts. 4x4 required.

The latest UAC Podcast was just released: The Message and the Messengers - A Conversation with Alex Hamlin. In this podcast forecaster Drew Hardesty sits down with Alex Hamlin. For over fifteen years, Alex Hamlin has worked at the intersection of storytelling and outdoor sport, with experience at magazines, global retail brands and creative agencies. In the conversation, they talk about the psychology behind marketing (and influencing behavior change), with a particular eye toward marketing safety.

I was fortunate enough to get out and ride with some of the local talent on Sunday. With a danger rating of CONSIDERABLE, we stuck to low angle terrain and and found lots of deep snow to play in. Everyone carried proper rescue gear and it was cool to see them use our new beacon checker sign at the trailhead.

Snow and Weather

Storm totals from Gold Basin the past 24 hours aren't hugely impressive at 7", but sometimes that's all it takes. Reports from yesterday indicate that conditions are as good as they get. Winds above treeline yesterday blew from the SE in the 20-25 mph range with gusts to 40, but below they were mostly light. This morning they are light and northwesterly and should remain that way for the day. Look for a few scattered showers today with high temps of around 10 degrees. We'll see some clearing tonight before the next system slides into the area promising significant snow by Thursday.

New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')

Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')

Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

National Weather Service point forecast.

General Announcements

Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].

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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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