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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 8th, 2016–Feb 9th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

Another warm and sunny day with freezing levels above 12,000 feet Tuesday will keep the avalanche danger focused on loose wet avalanches. Steeper solar slopes should be the most likely places for natural or skier triggered loose wet avalanches. Solar slopes involve more than just due south aspects as we head further into February, including east in the morning and southwest to west facing by afternoon. 

Detailed Forecast

Another warm and sunny day with light winds is expected again Tuesday. Temperatures pushed into the low 60's Monday afternoon and it may be a few degrees cooler Tuesday. The avalanche danger will again focus on loose wet avalanches. Steeper solar slopes should be the most likely places for natural or skier triggered loose wet avalanches. Solar slopes involve more than just due south aspects as we head further into February.  

Be aware of loose wet avalanche potential above terrain traps (like above cliffs or near gullies), where even small wet avalanches can become powerful and have unintended consequences.  

Lingering wind slab on lee slopes near and above treeline should be stubborn to trigger, but still possible in isolated locations on Tuesday. 

Watch for recent cornices along ridges which may become sensitive to trigger or release naturally during the warm weather. 

Snowpack Discussion

The warmest weather of the season is upon us Monday, Feb. 8th. Temperatures at Hurricane Ridge have ranged from the mid 40's to the low 60's Monday with snowpack settlement of about 6 inches since Sunday morning.

The very mild temperatures, sunshine and snowpack settlement have likely settled storm layers of wind slab and buried surface hoar reported over the weekend from storms late last week and the fast moving storm with strong S_SW winds Friday night. The storm snow amounts from late last week through Saturday amounted to about 14-16 inches.  

On Saturday, an observation on the NWAC page submitted by a professional guide identified a sensitive buried surface hoar layer on a north aspect near Hurricane Ridge.  Shooting cracks were observed, but no avalanche activity was observed on this layer.  

Also on Saturday, a NPS ranger reported a snowboarder triggered a wind slab avalanche on an NE aspect just outside of the ski area. The snowboarder was not caught, but the soft wind slab avalanche had a 1-2 ft crown. 

Abundant wet surface snow and sensitive cornices are the current key snowpack features. 

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.