Avalanche Forecast

Light winds and periods of light snow showers with continued cool temperatures should be seen on Sunday. A skiers delight! But continue to evaluate snow and terrain carefully on Sunday.

This weather should bring a gradually decreasing avalanche danger on Sunday. Storm layers that may exist above the new crust will slowly settle but could remain reactive to human triggers mainly in the above treeline Sunday. 

The greatest avalanche problem should be wind slab on lee slopes near and above treeline mainly NW-N-SE facing slopes below ridges. Watch for signs of firmer wind transported snow.

Watch for storm slab in areas that had rapidly accumulating snowfall.

Watch for newly formed cornices along ridges as well. These may be sensitive to human triggers.

Below treeline, the old wet snowpack should continue to drain and slowly refreeze.

Weather and Snowpack

Two fair weather periods earlier this month allowed surface hoar and near surface faceting to occur. These persistent weak layers were buried intact on January 3rd and 11th. Two heavy rain events, one about January 21st and one last Wednesday-Thursday have likely eliminated the January persistent layers and they will be removed from the avalanche problems in the west slopes zones.

A strong occluded front with strong winds crossed the Northwest on Friday. NWAC stations along the west slopes had about 1-1.5 feet of new snow by Saturday morning. Some areas are reporting a strong bond to the new crust and some a poor bond depending on when new snow arrived. However, even where good bonding exists there may be sensitive storm layers within the new snow. These storm layers may make for some sensitive triggered slabs and will take a bit of time to stabilize.

Recent Observations

NWAC pro-observer Simon Trautman ventured a ways into the white out conditions in the Mt Baker back country Friday afternoon to test the new storm snow. New sensitive wind slabs were quickly forming on a variety of exposed aspects near treeline during heavy snowfall and very strong westerly winds. Drifts were 8-18 inches and increasing. There was an intact layer of low density stellar crystals just above the crust forming the weak layer and reactive to skis on wind loaded terrain. See image below.

New sensitive wind slabs forming in the Mt Baker back country Friday afternoon 1/29. S. Trautman 

Other observations received Friday afternoon from the pro-patrol at Alpental indicated the crust had already formed prior to significant snow accumulations so bonding was poor. Winds were very strong and limited consistent uniformed slab formation.

Less activity was reported on Saturday. The Crystal pro-patrol reports isolated 6-8 storm slab via ski cuts on varied aspects. The Alpental pro-patrol reported no significant avalanches and that new snow was not cohesive.