Avalanche Forecast Olympics

Date Issued: Valid Until:

Kenny Kramer,

Avalanche Forecast

Mon Jan. 28th · 6:00PM

Alpine

Danger Ratings Below Threshold

Treeline

Danger Ratings Below Threshold

Below Treeline

Danger Ratings Below Threshold

Alpine

Danger Ratings Below Threshold

Treeline

Danger Ratings Below Threshold

Below Treeline

Danger Ratings Below Threshold
The Bottom Line: Firm surface crusts exist on all aspects and elevations in this zone after several days of clear very mild weather, limiting the avalanche danger. Another sunny and warm day Tuesday will compete with breezy conditions limiting snowmelt and Wet-Loose avalanche potential. Watch for deeper melting surface snow on steep sun-facing slopes sheltered from the wind.

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

Temperatures have been above freezing at Hurricane Ridge since Friday. If you see signs that the snow is not adjusting well to the warming, such as glide cracks, cornice failures, larger avalanches, or wet snow that your boot sinks easily into, seek safer terrain.

Melt-freeze crusts should exist on most aspects to ridgelines following the several days of very mild temperatures and sunshine.

While Loose Wet avalanches will be unlikely on Tuesday, you might encounter wet snow on steep, rocky, sunny slopes. If you start experiencing roller balls or wet snow deeper than your ankle, adjust your aspect to find firmer and safer conditions.

We received another recent observation from the Olympic mountains. Low snow coverage below 4000' and evidence of many strong crusts throughout the snowpack told the story of multiple rain events in this area, as well as recent avalanches on lee slopes at higher elevations.

Right now we are forecasting without specific snowpack and avalanche observations from the Hurricane Ridge area due to the recent government shutdown. If you travel to the Olympic Mountains, please help your local forecast by submitting an observation.

Forecast schedule

For the 2018-19 winter season, avalanche hazard ratings will be issued for the Olympics Friday through Sunday and during holidays. We will resume issuing ratings when access is once again available following the recent government shutdown.

General snowpack and weather summaries will be available on days that the Hurricane Ridge road is closed.

Weather Forecast

Tue 29th Jan 14:44 - Robert Hahn

Weather Synopsis for Tuesday night through Thursday

The ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather with the ridge axis just offshore. Expect generally mostly clear skies in the mountains, light alpine winds, and some easterly flow. Tuesday night and Wednesday, the pool of cold air east of the Cascade Crest will diminish as the trough that brought it is now far to the east. The pressure gradient across the Cascades will also weaken and easterly flow through the mountain gaps will lose strength. Meanwhile, cutoff low well offshore heads ESE towards northern California with quiescent weather remaining over our region and the ridge starts breaking down from the north with moisture spilling into British Columbia. The Pacific Northwest is in between. More fog is anticipated Tuesday night and Wednesday with very little wind to mix the atmosphere.


The same pattern continues Wednesday night and Thursday with a low pressure developing west of Vancouver Island. Moisture continues spilling into British Columbia with clouds increasing in northwest Washington state. On Thursday there may be a chance of light drizzle in the mountains. Easterly flow will increase slightly with the approaching trough.

Regional Synopsis

Sat 26th Jan 09:00

The late January pause...

Now that we’re well into winter and in the midst of a prolonged period of quieter weather, this is a good time to assess the current snowpack. Most areas are hovering around 75% of average snowpack depth for the season to date. Many of this season’s storms have brought at least some rain to mid elevations at the passes and west of the Cascade Crest. Multiple periods of cool, clear weather formed persistent weak layers.

Icicles hanging off of a snow feature are evidence of recent rain and daily temperatures swings. Stevens Pass. Photo: Josh Hirshberg


Recent conditions

 A prolonged period of warm quiet weather followed a storm on January 22-23rd that impacted most of the region. This weather system changed snow at the surface of the snowpack, drove an avalanche cycle, and tested or changed the latest persistent weak layers. The storm ramped up late on the 22nd in most areas. Intense precipitation (mostly snow) fell by dark with strong wind and warming temperatures. In the early morning hours of the 23rd snow switched to rain at the passes and western zones. Cold air to the east maintained low-density snowfall at most locations well east of the crest. In some areas, especially east of the crest, a new weak layer may have been buried at the January 22nd interface.

Wet loose avalanches on Mt Herman, near Mt Baker from 1/23. Photo: Lee Lazzara


January 23rd avalanche cycle

The bulk of recently reported avalanche activity occurred on January 23rd with high precipitation rates and wind loading in the early morning hours or with liquid water in the snow from rain or warming and sun during the day.

At the passes and in the western zones, reported avalanches were generally running either at the new/old snow interface or within the new snow. Observers reported a mix of soft slab, wet loose avalanches from near and below treeline with a few reports of shallow slabs above treeline. As of January 24th observations at upper elevations have been limited, due to lack of visibility and access.

In the eastern zones at areas like Washington Pass, Icicle Canyon, and the Wenatchee Mountains, some reported slab avalanches were confirmed or suspected to have involved persistent weak layers. Most notable is the January 17th surface hoar/near surface facets. There were a few reports of widely propagating avalanches, up to destructive size 3. Wind loading was a factor in many avalanches that released at upper elevations. Observers reported a widespread point releases on steep sunny slopes in the new snow where skies cleared on the 23rd.

A highlighted crown of a slab avalanche in Wenatchee Bowl, adjacent to numerous loose avalanches. Avalanches ran on January 23rd in recently fallen snow. Stevens Pass. Photo: Josh Hirshberg


Persistent Weak Layers (PWLs)

The latest round of snow, rain, and warming that tipped the balance of the snowpack was a good test of existing persistent weak layers. While the ever-changing snowpack keeps us busy tracking changes, some trends are apparent.

West Slopes and Passes: With a few exceptions, persistent weak layers have gained enough strength through rounding or melt-freeze to no longer be a concern for triggering avalanches. The main uncertainty lies with the January 17th surface hoar at upper elevations near Stevens Pass. This PWL is no longer a concern below treeline or in other zones. It appears that surface hoar generally wasn’t a player in avalanche activity near and west of the Cascade Crest. At low elevations, it has either been wetted by rain or is capped with crusts and moist snow. There’s reason to prioritize other issues, like challenging travel conditions, below treeline.

A slab avalanche on 1/23 (likely ran on the January 17th surface hoar) in Varden Creek drainage, near Washington Pass. The crown extends out of the photo, over 300ft wide.


Eastern Cascades: Triggering avalanches on persistent weak layers is possible east of the Cascade Crest. How much of a concern and exactly which PWL depends on where you are, north to south and east to west, in the range. The January 17th surface hoar/near surface facets is the main concern in the upper snowpack. Areas of shallower snowpack that lie further east of the Cascade Crest will have weaker snow and more pronounced weak layers in the mid to lower snowpack. In the Wenatchee Mounains you may find another layer of surface hoar (January 3rd) in the middle of the snowpack as well as weak facets near the ground. In places, like Washington Pass, the January 22nd surface hoar may become an issue with future storms.