Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday

Unsettled conditions are expected for Friday with periods of light snowfall and sunny breaks. The far south of the region could see 5-10cm of accumulation in the morning. Alpine winds are expected to be moderate from the southeast and freezing levels are forecast to reach around 1000m in the afternoon. Periods of light snowfall are expected on Saturday with moderate southerly winds in the alpine and freezing levels around 700m. A mix of sun and cloud is currently forecast for Sunday morning with a weak storm pulse arriving Sunday afternoon.

On Wednesday, numerous storm slab and wind slab avalanches up to size 2 were reported from the areas north of Stewart.  This includes two skier triggered avalanches on northeast aspects at 1400 and 1700m elevations.  Explosives triggered numerous slab avalanches primarily on north through east aspects between 1400 and 1600m.  On Tuesday, a natural storm cycle up to size 2.5 was reported north of Stewart.  Explosives also triggered numerous storm and wind slab avalanches in the same area.  No new avalanches have been reported around Terrace but it appears that there haven't been any observers in the field in the last couple days. Recent storm slabs are expected to remain reactive to human triggering on Friday.  In the far north of the region, deeply buried persistent weak layers may still be reactive to large triggers such as a cornice fall or a smaller avalanche stepping down.

50-100cm of recent storm snow has accumulated over the past week and overlies a melt freeze crust which extends up to around 2000m elevation. This recent snow is reported to be bonding well to the crust and all the recent avalanche activity has been failing within the storm snow. Moist snow was reported below 1200m on Wednesday, wet snow below 800m, and below threshold below 500m. Recent wind has redistributed the surface snow at higher elevations forming wind slabs in leeward features. The early January surface hoar/facet layer is down 100-200 cm and remains a concern for commercial operations. This layer seems the most reactive in the north of the region and there were several large avalanches reported last week that were releasing on this layer.