Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 11th, 2018 12:02PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

Dangerous avalanche conditions will persist on Friday, especially near and above treeline. Recent and fresh deep wind slab will exist near and above treeline. Time and patience is required to let recent storm snow instabilities heal. Small loose wet avalanches could become consequential around terrain traps below treeline. Travel conservatively Friday.

Summary

Detailed Forecast

Snow levels should eventually settle around 4500 feet  on Friday. Light to moderate showers seen through Friday morning should taper down in the afternoon. 

Dangerous avalanche conditions will persist on Friday, especially near and above treeline. Recent and fresh deep wind slab will exist near and above treeline. If visibility allows, look for evidence of recent large or very large natural wind slab avalanches that may have released in the alpine and run long vertical distances. 

Time and patience is required to let recent storm snow instabilities heal. Small loose wet avalanches could become consequential around terrain traps below treeline. Travel conservatively Friday.

Snowpack Discussion

A strong storm system Wednesday night and Thursday brought strong winds and heavy precipitation to Mt. Hood. Several inches of heavy wet snow accumulated near and above 6000 feet on Mt. Hood Thursday, with storm totals increasing further through the afternoon and evening hours as the snow level dipped below 5500 feet late Thursday afternoon.  W-SW winds were strong near and above treeline, making observations nearly impossible.

Observations

No avalanche activity was noted by mid-day Thursday in the Mt. Hood Meadows area at 5500 feet or below. 

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Elevations: Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Jan 12th, 2018 12:02PM