Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 14th, 2018 10:00AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs.

Northwest Avalanche Center NWAC, Northwest Avalanche Center

Firm surface crust conditions Monday may persist due to cooling winds and this should limit the danger increase at mid and lower elevations. Older wind slabs should continue to strengthen Monday. However, watch for lingering wind slabs in areas such as steep shaded terrain below ridges. Monitor changes in surface snow conditions as you travel.

Summary

Detailed Forecast

Mostly clear skies followed by increasing high clouds late Sunday night should allow for the surface snow to again form a crust, though likely not supportable.

Increasing clouds and moderate south winds and warm temperatures are expected during the day Monday. This should allow for slowly weakening surface snow, however wind and clouds should limit the surface snow melt to just a few inches at most.

Older wind slabs formed late last week will continue to strengthen, but may linger above treeline, especially on steep shaded slopes below ridges. Identify and avoid locations where avalanches are more likely triggered, such as unsupported slopes, steep convex roles, below cornices, and other shallow locations within the snowpack.

The stout icy surface crust reported in much of the terrain should persist due to clouds and wind and this should limit wet snow conditions Monday. While loose wet avalanches are not expected, monitor changing surface snow conditions. 

Icy surface crust near and below treeline, and a variety of snow surfaces above treeline will continue to make travel difficult in the Mt Hood area.

Snowpack Discussion

A strong high pressure ridge brought warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies to the Mt Hood area Saturday and again Sunday. This allowed the first real views into above treeline terrain in several days.

Friday, a rain and freezing rain event created icy surface conditions up to at least 7000 feet. While this surface crust softened on Saturday it did not entirely break down.

Above treeline, W-SW winds Wednesday through Friday combined with significant snowfall have likely created a variety of snow surface conditions, including firm wind slabs in the alpine.

Observations

Observations Friday from Mt Hood Meadows reported a supportable rain and freezing rain crust to 7000 feet. The ice crust prevented winds from transporting snow near and below treeline.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Jan 15th, 2018 10:00AM