Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Wednesday

On Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, expect a mix of sun and cloud with isolated spring "power flurries". Clouds should scatter by mid-day on Wednesday while Thursday and Friday will be mainly clear. Ridgetop winds will be light to moderate from the northwest on Wednesday, becoming generally calm on Thursday and Friday. Daytime freezing levels should sit at about 1200m for the forecast period.

A size 2 persistent slab avalanche was also noted on Sunday in the Dogtooth Range. The avalanche, which failed on a northeast aspect at 2200m, started as a smaller wind slab and stepped-down to the late February layer. This illustrates the touchy conditions in some areas. On Monday, explosives control triggered a few more size 2 persistent slab avalanches on a north facing alpine slope.

On Saturday night, 8-15cm of new snow fell. Strong southwest winds redistributed these accumulations into touchy wind slabs at treeline and in the alpine. 35-70 cm below the surface you'll find a persistent weak layer comprised of surface hoar, facets and/or a thick crust. This layer, which was buried on February 27th, seems variably reactive. In other words, it's still really touchy in some places while in other places it's really tough to trigger, and there's not much of a reliable pattern telling us what exact aspects are most suspect. I'd continue to be suspicious of steep, unsupported features at treeline and in the alpine as this layer has the potential for large avalanches. Deeper weak layers from mid-February and early January are now down 50-90cm and 70-120cm respectively. Triggering an avalanche on either of these layers has become unlikely but either still has the isolated potential to produce very large avalanches with a heavy trigger or significant warming. At ridgetop, cornices are huge and could be become increasingly touchy with forecast solar radiation.