Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 22nd, 2016 9:11AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Deep Persistent Slabs and Cornices.

matt.mueller, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Right now forecaster's are in a "stepping back" mode. It feels as if the snowpack is very delicate and any weather input could have drastic effects.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels will remain low tonight, keeping the snowpack cool. Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. The alpine high will reach -4 with increasing winds. It will likely feel much cooler than -4. West winds will average 30km/hr with gusts to 70km/hr. Freezing levels will reach 1900m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were noted today, however observations were limited to the accident scene from yesterday.

Snowpack Summary

The fracture line from yesterday's avalanche was today's snowpack inspection. In the alpine and upper treeline, we are still noticing the deeper layers becoming more problematic. The Jan 6th facet layer's depth is dependant on aspect and wind exposure. It can range from 40-150cm of dense snow! Tests today were sobering. There were repeatable failures in the "easy" range, which translates to an extremely delicate snowpack. On the solar aspects and lower elevations, the various crusts are also major players. In some areas we have up to 5 crusts that we are watching. The Feb 11th is the most significant crust and seems to exist on non-polar aspects as a density change. On north aspects, surface hoar was observed up to 2200m. Below treeline, the travel is either on a crust or weak facetted snow.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

It is important to remember that this layer presents itself as either a crust, or a density change. Pay close attention to all of the current crust problems and keep tabs on them as you travel.

Carefully evaluate big terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Deep Persistent Slabs

This interface is the one to watch these days. Triggering this layer will almost certainly result in a very large destructive avalanche.

Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche - even on low angle terrain.>Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

3 - 6

Cornices

Typically the cornice problem will come and go depending on weather. This year's crop is bigger and as such it demands more than the usual amount of respect.

Avoid steep slopes below cornices.>Stay well back from cornices.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

3 - 6

Valid until: Mar 23rd, 2016 2:00PM