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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 1st, 2015–Dec 2nd, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Avalanche danger is increasing with the on-going storm. Expect danger to be HIGH by Thursday or earlier if you get more snow than forecast in your area.

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

Moderate precipitation is expected to continue overnight. Coastal ranges in the west of the region may see 20-40 mm of water equivalent in the 24 hours preceding Wednesday morning. The areas that see the most precipitation are also expected to have the warmest temperatures; coastal freezing levels may reach 1500 metres. Expect a bit of a lull between low pressures systems on Wednesday, with the next system hitting the north coast on Wednesday night. Thursday should be wet and windy as the storm pushes into the region from the south. Friday should bring another gap between systems.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. I suspect that new storm slabs are developing and may be easily triggered by light additional loads.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is highly variable across different aspects and elevations. So far, we only have limited information from the field. Initial reports suggest that there is around 150 cm at 2000 m. Recent winds have scoured exposed slopes, and left variable wind slabs and crusts. In some places, a crust/facet interface or surface hoar can be found in the upper snowpack. At high elevations, a crust which formed early season may exist near the base of the snowpack. The new storm snow may not bond well to the mix of old surfaces left behind after the recent high pressure. Buried surface hoar may be found below the new storm snow at lower elevations, or in areas where the recent temperature inversion was not strong enough to melt it.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The on-going storm is developing new storm slabs that may not bond well to the old surface of crusts, facets, and surface hoar.
Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Stay well to the windward side of corniced ridges.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4