Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to variable snowpack conditions

A ridge of high pressure should maintain sunny and dry conditions for Saturday and Sunday. Freezing levels should rise to 1500m on Saturday and 1600-1800m on Sunday, with cool temperatures overnight. Winds are generally light from the south. A weak system could bring light to moderate precipitation on Monday, but the timing and strength of this system is still a little uncertain. The freezing level should drop to around 1200m as the system approaches.

Numerous loose-wet and slab avalanches to Size 2 were reported on solar aspects on Friday. There was also a report of one Size 3 natural avalanche from a NE alpine feature in the South Chilcotin. Avalanche activity on Thursday was limited to a couple cornice failures, with one triggering a Size 1.5 slab avalanche below. Wednesday was a very active day in the Coquihalla Pass. Explosive control produced several Size 4 avalanches running full path and taking out extensive mature timber, and numerous Size 2-3 avalanches. A few large natural avalanches were also observed in lee terrain.

Solar aspects will likely go through a melt-freeze cycle with a frozen surface overnight becoming moist throughout the day. Snowfall amounts over the past few days have varied significantly throughout the region with southeast areas (Coquihalla) receiving up to 60cm of new snow, while places like the Duffy Lake have seen considerably less. Expect wind slabs to be deep in heavy snowfall areas and thin in other areas. Crusts down around 60cm can be found on solar aspects in the Duffey Lake, Chilcotin, and down closer to 1m in the Coquihalla. These exhibit moderate to hard, sudden results in snowpack tests. Deeper persistent weak layers are variable in distribution across the region. A crust/surface hoar/facet layer buried in early February, now down about 1.5m, is still is a key concern. It is especially prevalent on south-facing slopes above treeline, and all slopes below treeline. Although the likelihood of triggering this layer has decreased, the potential for surprisingly large avalanches remains. Cornices are reported to be very large and should be given a wide berth.