Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 12th, 2021 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
Adam Greenberg,
New snow, strong winds, and elevated freeing levels will test the snowpack Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Choose conservative terrain and avoid exposure to overhead hazard.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Wednesday: 20-30cm of snow by Wednesday morning with strong to extreme SW winds. Freezing levels will likely peak around 2000m early in they morning before dropping to valley bottom by the afternoon.
Thursday: Clear skies, winds easing off and switching to N. Freezing levels at valley bottom
Friday: Mainly cloudy with strong W winds, alpine high -6
Snowpack Summary
Expect to find at least 30cm of new snow redistributed by strong SW winds, with a crust near the surface below 2000m. Upper elevations are heavily wind affected, and new windslabs will be found in lee areas. The Dec 9th crust can be found down 70-100cm at Cameron Lake. Areas east of the divide hold a thin & faceted snowpack.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches observed as of Tuesday afternoon, but the brunt of the storm is expected overnight into wednesday morning.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday
Problems
Storm Slabs
New snow combined with strong winds will form reactive slabs. As the wind switches to northerly on Thursday, we will see reverse loading with wind slabs forming outside of usual lee features.
- Use caution in lee areas. New snowfall mixed with wind loading is creating Wind Slabs.
- Watch for stiffer feeling snow. Avoid areas that appear wind loaded.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
We still have a concern for persistent weak layers as the snowpack adjusts to its new load. These could be triggered by cornice fall, a smaller avalanche stepping down, or a human in thin snowpack areas.
- Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
- Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger the persistent slab.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 15th, 2021 4:00PM
