Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 14th, 2021 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is high. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Loose Wet and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada kdevine, Avalanche Canada

Another storm is here, bringing heavy precipitation, warm temperatures and strong to extreme wind. Avoid avalanche terrain.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT - Snow, 10-20 cm / southwest wind, 60-80 km/h, gusting to 120 km/h / alpine low temperature near -2 / freezing level 1400 m in the south, near valley bottom in the north

FRIDAY - Snow, 10-20 cm / southwest wind, 60-80 km/h gusting to 100 km/h / alpine high temperature near -1 / freezing level 1000 m in the south, near valley bottom in the north

SATURDAY - Snow, 10-20 cm / south wind, 50-70 km/h / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1000 m in the south, near valley bottom in the north

SUNDAY - Flurries, 5-10 cm / southwest wind, 30-60 km/h / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1000 m in the south, near valley bottom in the north

Avalanche Summary

New snow and strong winds will mean that storm slabs are anticipated to be widespread and natural avalanches are expected. 

There were a few natural avalanches up to size 3 reported in the north of the region on Wednesday. There was also one remotely triggered size 3 persistent slab avalanche reported in the north of the region.

There was a natural avalanche cycle reported on Tuesday, as well as numerous explosives triggered avalanches up to size 2.5 and a few human triggered size 1 avalanches.

On Monday, there were reports of widespread natural and explosives triggered avalanches up to size 3. The largest avalanches were reported in the north of the region where there has been more recent snow. The avalanches being reported closer to Terrace were generally in the size 1-2 range.

Snowpack Summary

20-40 cm of snow is expected between Thursday night and Friday afternoon. This will bring recent storm snow totals to around 70-120 cm. Rising freezing levels on Thursday night will mean that much of this precipitation will likely fall as rain at treeline and below treeline in the south of the region.

In the Shames area, a weak layer of surface hoar has been reported in sheltered areas down around 100-160 cm. 

A bit further north in the Nass/Sterling/Beaupre areas, there is potentially still concern about an older weak layer overlying a crust that is now roughly 160-180 cm deep. 

In the far north of the region, there is concern about weak snow at the bottom of the snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy rain.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

20-40 cm of new snow is expected between Thursday night and Friday afternoon. Storm slabs are expected to be widespread.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Rain is expected up to 1400 m on Thursday night, and 1000 m on Friday. Wet loose avalanches can be expected in areas where the snow feels wet.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

There are a few different persistent weak layers being reported throughout the region. They are all generally buried between 100-200 cm and tend to consist of either surface hoar or crusts with faceted snow sitting on them.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Jan 15th, 2021 4:00PM

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