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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 25th, 2019–Feb 26th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Strong outflow winds continue to redistribute recent new snow, expect to find wind slabs on various aspects and cross-loaded terrain. The best riding will likely be found in sheltered areas with limited wind effect.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind effect is extremely variable

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Alpine temperatures near -10C. Ridgetop winds moderate gusting strong from the east-northeast.TUESDAY: Sunny. Alpine temperatures near -3C. Ridgetop winds moderate occasionally gusting strong from the east-northeast.WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Alpine temperatures near -5C, freezing level rising to 800 m. Ridgetop winds moderate gusting strong from the northeast.THURSDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. Alpine temperature near -2C, freezing level around 800 m. Ridgetop winds light occasionally gusting strong from the northeast.

Avalanche Summary

A touchy and reactive snowpack was reported around the Shames backcountry on Sunday. MIN reports document skier-triggered wind slab avalanches size 1-1.5 on south-southeast aspects (See one report here).Several small (size 1) avalanches in adjacent terrain were triggered by skiers descending on Sunday on West to south aspects in the Alpine. On Saturday, while traversing a bench feature skiers north of Terrace remotely triggered 3 small (size 1) storm slab avalanches in steeper terrain. A helicopter also remotely triggered a larger size 2 storm slab avalanche. The Saturday avalanches occurred in similar steep terrain on west to north aspects around 1300 m and failed 30-50 cm deep on the recently buried surface hoar layer.Avalanche observations since Thursday's storm include several small (size 1-1.5) storm slab avalanches at lower elevations and some larger wind slabs (up to size 2) at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Around 40 cm snow over the weekend fell on a variety of surfaces from hard wind slab to cold and faceted snow. Strong outflow winds are reshaping the surface, harder wind slabs are found in exposed terrain at treeline and above with soft slab development in lee and cross-loaded features.In most areas, the new snow collectively overlies hard, previously wind affected surfaces or crust on solar aspects. In selective sheltered areas, it may overlie surface hoar or an older layer of faceted (sugary) snow.In the south of the region, the remainder of the snowpack is well-settled. Around Bear Pass and in the north of the region, you may find two weak layers of surface hoar buried between 50 and 100 cm. The base of the snowpack may also be composed of weak and sugary faceted snow.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Snow over the weekend formed reactive slabs and is now being affected by wind. Recent observations place more reactive slabs on south to east aspects. With strong outflow winds, expect slab development on a variety of aspects and cross-loaded areas.
Keep an eye out for reverse loading created by outflow winds.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2