Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Human-triggered avalanches are likely on the Jan 29th Surface Hoar layer! Applying conservative terrain choices would be wise with the current conditions!
And we recorded 124km/h Southerly winds on Monday too, so expect wind slabs!
Weather Forecast
Wednesday's forecast is for flurries, moderate westerly winds and a FL of 1600m. Similar weather conditions can be expected for Thursday, but with strong SW winds, and higher freezing levels. Friday we should start to see some more sun and a likely temperature inversion.
Snowpack Summary
Extreme Southerly winds on Monday scoured ridges and loaded up lee terrain features at all elevations. Strong Solar input over the weekend formed sun crusts on steep terrain SE-SW asp. The Jan 29th SH layer is buried ~50-80cm depending on asp and elev. This PWL has been most reactive on polar aspects, but overlies a sun crust on steep solar asp!
Avalanche Summary
Bonney Morraines: Skier accidental x 3 all on the Jan 29th Surface Hoar Layer! Today: SZ 1.5, and the skier was partially buried. Another vague report of a size 1.5. Sunday: SZ 2 in the same vicinity.Â
Yesterday: Dome exit skier triggered multiple small slides on the SH layer, and extreme winds triggered a Natural cycle to SZ 2.5 in the HWY.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
The Jan 29th SH layer is buried approximately 50-80cm depending on aspect and elevation. This PWL has been most reactive on polar aspects, but overlies a sun crust on steep solar asp! Several skier accidentals have occurred recently on this layer.
- Whumphing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.
- Convex features and steep unsupported slopes will be most prone to triggering.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Wind Slabs
Strong-extreme Westerly winds and new snow Monday have formed fresh wind slabs at all elevations. If the snow surface feels stiff, you're standing on a wind slab. Evaluate wind loaded areas carefully.
- Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.
- If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5