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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 16th, 2019–Jan 17th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Columbia.

Light snowfall over the next few days with a potentially bigger storm by the weekend, stay tuned...

Confidence

High - on Thursday

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, light south wind, alpine temperatures drop to -10 C.THURSDAY: Scattered flurries with 5-10 cm of snow, light southeast wind, alpine high temperatures around -8 C. FRIDAY: Another 5 cm of snow, light southwest wind, alpine high temperatures around -4 C. SATURDAY: 5-15 cm of snow, strong southwest wind, freezing level climbing to 1300 m, alpine high temperatures around -2 C.

Avalanche Summary

Activity since last weekend has been limited, consisting primarily of small loose snow avalanches (mostly on sunny slopes) and isolated cornice falls and wind slabs (mostly on north and east facing slopes).On Tuesday, a small cornice fall triggered a size 2 persistent slab avalanche. The avalanche occurred in north-facing glaciated terrain in the Selkirks and appeared to have stepped down to glacier ice (100-200 cm deep).

Snowpack Summary

Recent warm alpine temperatures left crusty surfaces on southerly aspects, while the snow remained dry on northerly aspects. Old wind slabs and cornices could be lingering at higher elevations.The middle and lower portions of the snowpack are generally well-settled and strong. On southerly aspects you may find a thin sun crust with facets down around 50 cm. Recent sudden snowpack results indicate this layer could still be a failure plane on steep southerly slopes in thin snowpack areas. Professionals are also tracking a layer around 130 to 180 cm deep, composed of weak faceted grains, surface hoar, and a sun crust. The chance of triggering this layer is very low. In shallow snowpack areas, the base of the snowpack may also still be composed of weak faceted grains.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Watch for wind loaded slopes in the alpine and near ridgetops. New wind slabs may form over the next few days, while older wind slabs may still be triggered in steep lee terrain. Cornices may exist in places too.
Good conditions exist on most north-aspect slopes, except in areas where wind slabs exist.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2