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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 21st, 2022–Mar 22nd, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

 Keep an eye on the snow surface. As the freezing level rises and the snow surface becomes moist wet loose avalanches will increase in size and likelihood. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: Flurries bringing around 5 cm of new snow at higher elevations. Moderate southerly winds and freezing levels rising to 1700 m.

Tuesday: cloudy with around 5 mm of precipitation likely falling as rain at all elevations. moderate southerly winds and freezing levels rising to 2500 m.

Wednesday: Cloudy with up to 10 mm of precipitation that will likely fall as rain. Freezing levels falling to 1500 m. Moderate southwest winds.

Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud with no new snow expected. Light to moderate variable winds with freezing levels around 1600 m.

Avalanche Summary

initial reports from Sunday suggest that there was a widespread storm slab cycle to size two in the region. 

On Saturday skier traffic produced small slabs and loose avalanches on all aspects and elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs could be found on northerly aspects at higher elevations. Moist snow will likely be found on all aspects and elevations. 

The upper snowpack contains several crust layers that can likely be found on all aspects and elevations except high north terrain. The snowpack is considered well-settled and strong below these crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid areas of wind loaded snow.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

 As freezing levels rise the size and likelihood of wet loose avalanches will increase. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs could still be found on high northerly terrain. Sensitivity to triggering could be greater where wind slab has formed over a crust.

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2