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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 19th, 2022–Mar 20th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

There have been many recent incidents of skiers getting surprised by reactive slabs on steep, solar features.

Assess your line carefully and avoid convex rolls until this problem stabilizes.

Weather Forecast

This evening's power flurry (up to 10cm) will ease later tonight through Sunday as a ridge moves through the province.

Tonight: Flurries, trace accumulations. Low -12*C, Freezing level (fzl) 500m. Moderate W wind.

Sun: Mix of sun and cloud. High -10*C, fzl 1000m, mod W wind

Mon: Flurries (trace), low -10*C, high -6*C, fzl 1500m, mod SW wind

Snowpack Summary

Incoming new snow adds to the 45-70cm of settled snow received since Mar 11th. Solar aspects treeline and below have a series of buried suncrusts (the most recent - Mar 11th and 7th - may sandwich weak, sugary snow between them). On shaded aspects, spotty small surface hoar may be buried down ~70cm (March 7), down 90cm (Feb 26), and >1m (Feb 15).

Avalanche Summary

A cornice failure on the north side of Mt Cheops triggered a persistent slab lower in the path, sometime in the last 36 hrs.

On Friday, there was a report of a skier involvement in a size 2 slab avalanche in steep terrain in Puff Daddy, and several size 1 slabs in Ursus trees and Rogers Run - all failing on the Mar 11th suncrust.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Although natural avalanche activity has been tapering, the Mar 11th suncrust is proving touchy to skier triggering on steep solar slopes.

Small surface hoar from Mar 7th may also be lingering on Northerly aspects.

  • The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.
  • Evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Loose Dry

This afternoon's power-flurry will freshen up the loose dry problem in steep terrain.

  • On steep slopes, pull over periodically or cut into a new line to manage sluffing.
  • Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2