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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 21st, 2018–Mar 22nd, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Watch for deteriorating avalanche conditions and steadily increasing hazard throughout the day. Both natural and human triggered avalanches will become increasing likely, especially at upper elevations where all the precipitation should fall as snow.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

A rather complex pattern is expected to deliver a significant shot of precipitation and wind with a warm to cold trend.  This storm should be most intense Thursday and begin to clear as we enter the weekend.  This is a great time to check out the Mountain Weather Forecast for further details! (Link below)WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 1500 m, strong to extreme southerly wind, about 10 mm of precipitation. THURSDAY: Overcast, freezing level starting at 1500 m, lowering to 600 m by sundown, moderate to strong southerly wind, 20 to 30 mm of precipitation expected.FRIDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level holding around 700 m, light southerly wind, 4 to 6 mm of precipitation possible.SATURDAY:  Scattered cloud cover, freezing level beginning around 600 m rising to 1000 m, light variable wind, no significant precipitation expected. 

Avalanche Summary

No significant avalanche activity has been reported recently.  New rain, snow and wind Wednesday night into Thursday will likely generate fresh avalanche activity that will be most pronounced in higher elevation terrain. 

Snowpack Summary

New snow and rain Thursday will fall on a mix of moist grains, crusts and potentially surface hoar/facets on high elevation polar (north and east) aspects.  The storms transition from warm to cold should be largely copacetic for our snowpack, but it does have potential to generate touchy storm slabs at upper elevations.Last week's storm brought up to 15 cm of new snow to the alpine while rain saturated the upper snowpack at treeline and below. Surface conditions on solar aspects and below about 1500 m have been affected by daily melt-freeze cycles. In the limited alpine terrain where the recent precipitation fell as snow, stubborn old wind slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.Below any recent snow accumulations, the overall snowpack is well settled and strong. Cornices loom over many ridge lines. Cornices become more unstable during the day as the temperature rises, especially when they are receiving direct sun.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow may not bond well to the old surface which is a mix of moist grains, crusts, surface hoar and facets. Natural and human triggered avalanches are anticipated at upper elevation as storm snow accumulates throughout the day.
Storm slabs are expected to most sensitive to triggering in wind exposed terrain.Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2