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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 1st, 2018–Feb 2nd, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Take time to evaluate the snowpack before committing to your objectives.  Recent storm snow needs time to settle and bond. Persistent weak layers may still be triggered by large loads such as cornice fall or storm snow avalanches.

Weather Forecast

Convective flurries, SW winds edging into moderate at ridge line and an alpine high of -9C today. The next Pacific storm begins tonight with upwards of 25cm by the end of the day Friday. The snow continues through the weekend with  mod-strong SW winds and upwards of 25cm of additional snow.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack Discussion75cm of recent storm snow, 20cm in the last 48hrs at 1900m, along with moderate S'ly winds. Expect to find soft wind slab along ridge lines and lee features. Jan 16 surface hoar is down ~70cm, Jan 4 down ~90cm and Dec 15 down ~1m+ making for a complex sandwich of weak layers.

Avalanche Summary

Jan 29-30, 2018 produced a widespread avalanche cycle to size 3.5. A heli flight yesterday at treeline elevation reported numerous avalanches mainly in the size 2 range, from the same avalanche cycle. Grizzly Bowl released size 3 and ran to 2/3 fan overnight Jan 30-31.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent heavy snowfall has created a storm slab in some locations. Wind transport added to the load on lee slopes at and above treeline. If triggered, the slab could step down to deeper persistent weak layers.
If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Natural avalanche activity on the persistent weak layers has dropped off. The Jan 16th, 4th &Dec 15th surface hoar layers  are buried deep. Large triggers such as cornice fall or storm slabs may overload these layers.
Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes. Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5