Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

TUESDAY NIGHT: 15-40 cm of new snow, moderate wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -1 C.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries until a frontal system arrives in the evening bringing heavy rain and warming temperatures, moderate wind from the south, treeline temperatures around -1 C during the day.

THURSDAY: Heavy rain all day (50-70 mm), strong wind from the southwest, freezing level rises to 2000 m and treeline temperatures around +3 C.

FRIDAY: As the frontal system leaves the region freezing level lowers from 2000 to 1200 m meaning at some point rain will transition to snow (possible accumulations of 10-40 cm), moderate wind from the south, treeline temperatures around 0 C.

Accumulations of new snow will likely create reactive storm slabs on Wednesday. Storm slabs could be extra reactive where they sit above hard crusts. Similar conditions existed on the weekend when a few small (size 1) human triggered slabs were reported (see this MIN report for an example).

Between Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning 15-40 cm of new snow will accumulate. This snow is falling above wet and crusty snow left over from heavy rain a few days ago. Rain all the way to the top of the North Shore mountains ruined any remaining power from last week, but has also created a strong snowpack. The highest peaks of the region may still have dry snow and old wind slabs.

• Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
• Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
• Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 25cm of new snow.