Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 15th, 2016–Apr 16th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Mt Hood.

The amount of sun, heat and recent storm snow should be the main factors to consider on Saturday. More heat and more recent storm snow will generally mean more avalanche danger.

Detailed Forecast

An upper ridge and warm air mass should continue to build over the US west coast on Saturday with offshore surface flow developing over the Northwest. A warm front may clip the Olympics with some light rain or snow and clip the north Cascades with some clouds with fair weather further south and east of the crest.

The amount of sun, heat and recent storm snow should be the main factors to consider on Saturday. More heat and more recent storm snow will generally mean more avalanche danger.

Loose wet avalanches should be likely at Mt Hood Saturday on steeper slopes involving snow received during the week. Watch for wet snow deeper than your boot tops, especially on steep solar slopes during the late morning to afternoon hours. Avoid areas below steep gullies and run out zones.

Wind slab will listed at Mt Hood due to the recent reports. Wind slab should be most likely on N-E slopes in the near and especially the above treeline. Watch for signs of firmer wind transported snow and shooting cracks.

The potential for cornice releases will increase through the weekend. Cornice releases can be unpredictable during the spring so avoid areas below cornices and remember that cornices can break much further back than expected along ridges.

 

 

 

 

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

We've had two big warm-ups and spring shed cycles since the end of March. Over this time period the snowpack has undergone significant settlement with lower elevation snow beginning to fade away and with an overall transition to a spring snowpack.

A front crossed the Northwest Tuesday afternoon and night. Then a cool upper and surface low pressure system moved east along the Washington-Oregon border on Wednesday and Thursday. NWAC sites at Mt Hood had 11-14 inches of late season snow in the 3 days ending Friday morning with 6-8 inches of that snow in just the 24 hours ending Friday morning.

Storms in March continued to build unusually large cornices along many ridges. The potential for low probability/high consequence encounters, such as cornice failures and glide avalanches from steep unsupported slopes and smooth rock faces, should continue for awhile this spring. 

The mid and lower snowpack along the west slopes should generally be a stable mix of crusts and layers of moist and rounded snow crystals.

Recent Observations

NWAC observer Laura Green was in the Heather, White and Mitchell Canyon areas in low visibility on Thursday. She found new building wind slab of 20-30 cm by late morning with shooting cracks on N-NE slopes at 6600 feet. Ski cuts were giving easy, small wind slab releases on slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

 The Mt. Hood Meadows pro-patrol gave the NWAC an extensive report for Friday morning. In the above treeline explosive control produced extensive wind slab releases on N-E slopes up to 4 feet deep running on the 4/12 crust. It was felt that these releases could have been triggered by skiers. In the near to above treeline they found ski triggered 4-6 inch wind slab also on N-E slopes but more limited in extent and some small ski triggered and natural loose wet avalanches on E-S slopes.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

 

Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridgeline areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.

 

A corniced ridgeline. A large cornice has formed at the top of the ridge. A smaller cornice has formed to the left of the trees from crossloading.

Cornices are easy to identify and are confined to lee and cross-loaded ridges, sub-ridges, and sharp convexities. They are easiest to trigger during periods of rapid growth (new snow and wind), rapid warming, and during rain-on-snow events. Cornices often catch people by surprise when they break farther back onto flatter areas than expected.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 1 - 2