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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 17th, 2023–Jan 18th, 2023
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Continue to make conservative terrain choices and consider the consequences of an avalanche on a chosen slope. The snowpack remains weak and untrustworthy.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A few small (size 1 to 1.5) human triggered slabs were reported on Monday, mostly failing on a 30 cm deep surface hoar layer. A few larger (size 2) human triggered slabs were reported in the Esplanade range. Explosive avalanche control produced multiple large (size 2) and one very large (size 3) deep persistent slab avalanches along steep rocky ridges at treeline. On Saturday, a skier triggered a size 2.5 avalanche on a low angle alpine slope near Golden. This avalanche had a 1 m crown and ran on the facets near the bottom of the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 20 cm of settled storm snow can be found in sheltered areas, while open terrain has been wind affected. A rain crust can be found up to 2000 m in most parts of the region.

There are two concerning weak layers in the top meter of the snowpack. The first is a layer of surface hoar from early January and the second is a layer of surface hoar, facets, and a crust from December. Both these layers are most concerning at treeline and above. There is also a layer of large facets at the bottom of the snowpack that continues to produce avalanches and will likely persist for a prolonged period of time.

In general, the snowpack is shallow and weak.

Weather Summary

Tuesday night

Cloudy, no precipitation, 20 km/h west wind, treeline temperatures drop to -8 °C.

Wednesday

Cloudy, no precipitation, 30 to 40 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures around -6 °C.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, isolated flurries with 1 to 5 cm of snow, 40 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures around -6 °C.

Friday

Mostly sunny skies, 30 km/h northwest wind, treeline temperatures around -8 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

There are two concerning weak layers in the top meter of the snowpack that continue to produce human triggered avalanches. The first is a layer of surface hoar down 30 to 40 cm buried in early January. The second is a layer of surface hoar, facets and/or a crust from December. This layer can be found down 40 to 70 cm.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

A weak layer near the base of the snowpack, buried in November, remains a concern. Human triggering of this layer remains possible, especially in shallow areas with variable snow depths.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3