Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cascades - North West.
While the Avalanche Danger is slowly decreasing, dangerous conditions remain at upper elevations. You can trigger Wind Slabs near and above treeline and Persistent Slab avalanches on sunny slopes in the upper snowpack. Avoid wind loaded areas and large open sun-exposed slopes 35 degrees and steeper.
Detailed Forecast
You can easily trigger Wind Slab avalanches near and above treeline, today. You can avoid these avalanches by staying off of recent snow drifts, deeply pillowed features, and fresh cornices on slopes 35 degrees and steeper. These areas may exist far below ridge-lines and on mid-slope cross-loaded features. In some location soft non-wind-effected snow may cover new wind slabs making them harder to identify.
You may still be able to trigger recent Storm Slabs about 1 foot deep.There's a good chance that these avalanches will be hard to trigger by Saturday. Small test slopes and quick tests can help you identify whether you could trigger these avalanches. Avoid slopes over 35 degrees with poorly bonded, yet cohesive surface snow.Â
You can trigger Persistent Slab avalanches in the upper snowpack on sun-exposed slopes greater than 35 degrees. Avoid steep, open, sunny slopes as well as large avalanche paths to reduce your risk of these difficult to manage avalanches.If you dig about 2-3 feet below the surface you will find a series of thin sun crusts surrounded by very small facets. These layers have been the source of several avalanches in the Cascades. Snow profiles and snowpack test can confirm the presence of this layer; however they cannot prove its absences.
Observers continue to report potential for a Deep Persistent Slab. Avalanches triggered in the surface snow could step down to release a large and dangerous avalanche in deeper layers in the snowpack. These avalanches are becoming increasingly difficult to trigger. The best way to avoid this low likelihood-high consequence problem is by avoiding triggering smaller avalanches in the surface snow. You may see some small loose avalanches release on the surface of steep slopes today.Â
Snowpack Discussion
Over a foot of new snow fell since Wednesday. New snow combined with moderate to strong winds to transport snow in exposed terrain formed fresh wind slabs.
On E-S-W aspects, a thin breakable sun crust was formed early last week and buried on 2/23. Very small weak facets have been reported surrounding the crust. This layer has not yet had significant time to heal. It is found 2-3 feet below the surface on steeper slopes that have received direct sun during the past week.
Some observations suggest the presence of other persistent grains at this same interface on shaded slopes. Buried surface hoar and large preserved stellars have been reported in recent avalanches and snowpack tests at this interface.
Avalanche and snowpack observations continue to indicate that avalanches are possible on a layer of weak sugary facets buried on 2/13. This weak layer is generally 3 to 5 feet below the snow surface just above a very firm melt-freeze crust (2/8).
There are no significant layers of concern below the 2/8 crust.
Observations
On Wednesday NWAC professional observer Lee Lazzara traveled in the Mt Baker backcountry. Lee reported wind slabs forming on a variety of aspects near treeline. Snowpack observations showed a highly variable snowpack, but the facet/crust combination was found on steep sunny aspects 2 feet below the snow surface.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Persistent Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slabs.
The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.
This Persistent Slab was triggered remotely, failed on a layer of faceted snow in the middle of the snowpack, and crossed several terrain features.
Persistent slabs can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. You can trigger them remotely and they often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine wind and storm slabs. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1