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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 10th, 2015–Dec 11th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Inland.

The places you are going to find the best riding conditions in the wake of the storm are probably the same places where the danger from a layer of buried surface hoar is greatest.

Confidence

Low - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

The next few storms are tracking to the south and are going to largely miss the Northwest regions. FRIDAY: flurries, light southwest wind, freezing level valley floor SATURDAY: isolated flurries, light east winds, freezing level valley floor. SUNDAY: clear, moderate northwest winds.  Freezing level valley floor.

Avalanche Summary

The layer of buried surface hoar is my biggest concern.  It is probably widespread and is reaching a burial depth that was associated with a rash of skier and remotely triggered avalanches in the deeper snowpack around Terrace last weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 60cms of settled snow now sits upon a layer of buried surface hoar.  This layer has the potential for remote triggering and wide propagations.  It is likely to be lurking in most sheltered areas at tree-line although I suspect it extends well into the alpine.  Variable winds are loading lee features. Below 1500m heavy rains have likely saturated the snow pack and may have formed a new rain crust.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The new snow is sitting on a buried layer of surface hoar that may be at a critical depth for human triggered avalanches.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at tree-line and in the alpine where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Storm Slabs

Winds shifted from west to east and may have reverse loading mid slope features.
Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Use caution when traveling in areas that have been reverse loaded by winds.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5