Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 6th, 2015–Jan 7th, 2015
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Upwards of 70cm of storm snow now and the southerly winds are in the moderate range.  Expect touchy avalanche conditions. Make conservative terrain choices.

Weather Forecast

A warm Pacific storm continues to dump storm snow on the forecast area while cold air hangs in the valley bottoms.  The storm is expected to come to an end by Wednesday morning with the warm air dropping down to valley bottom elevations.  Another 10-15cm of storm snow is expected today along with rising freezing levels.   

Snowpack Summary

We have received 65cm of storm snow since New Year. Moderate southerly winds are redistributing this snow onto alpine lee and cross-loaded features. Warming temperatures with the possibility of above freezing temperatures to 1900m should result in a rapidly increasing avalanche danger. 

Avalanche Summary

Numerous size 2 to 2.5 avalanches with the occasional size 3 avalanche along the highway corridor. Skiers, sluff management will be important on steeper features at and below treeline. At and above treeline expect new storm slabs and always keep in mind the Dec 17th weak layer which will be getting overloaded by this large storm.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Loose Dry

70cm of storm snow since the New Year with continued snowfall today. The surface snow is likely to sluff rapidly in steeper terrain and effect anything down slope of your location ie other skiers and riders.
Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Storm Slabs

70cm of storm snow since the New Year, moderate south winds and warming temperatures all translates into a settling surface slab. This will be most likely in highly wind exposed areas such as ridgelines and crossloaded features.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The December 17th surface hoar layer is still a real concern in the snowpack.  The significant storm snow load should be increasing the probability of triggering this deeper weak layer.  This layer is most prevalent at treeline elevations.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3