Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 16th, 2014–Mar 17th, 2014

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high

Below Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

We are in the middle of a storm and a natural avalanche cycle. The backcountry will be a very dangerous place until tomorrow. Best to head to the local ski hills today for some turns.

Weather Forecast

Pacific storm will continue to deliver snow, rain at lower elevations, with mild temperatures to the interior until late tonight with moderate to strong south west winds. Precipitation will then back off and temperatures will cool down. Unsettled conditions will persist into Monday.

Snowpack Summary

30cm of heavy snow on top of 20cm of lower density snow overlie the Mar 13 crust on solar aspects and below 1600m. Rain below 1100m has saturated the upper snowpack. The Mar 2 crust is down around 1m and the Feb 10 layer is down 1.5m-2m. the mid and lower snowpack is very well settled.

Avalanche Summary

Natural cycle in progress. Avalanches to size 4.0 running to the end of their runouts throughout the highway corridor. The same can be expected in the backcountry.

Confidence

on Sunday

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

We've had a significant amount of snow overnight. Combined with the mild temperatures, the southerly winds which have started to pick up and the crust which it sits on, the new storm slab will be highly reactive to human triggering.

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Persistent Slabs

This sudden heavy snow load is likely to reawaken the deeper persistent weak layers creating very large avalanches. Avoid crossing avalanche paths until the storm ends and temperatures cool down.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 4

Wet Slabs

Overnight and continued rain below 1100m will weaken the upper snowpack. These conditions are dangerous in any steep terrain even if heavily forested. These avalanches will be slow moving but very heavy and difficult to manoeuvre out of.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3