Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 1st, 2017–Mar 2nd, 2017

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

A stormy forecast could bring us significant snowfall through the weekend. Combined with strong winds natural and human triggered avalanches will be increasingly likely. Time to start reining it in.

Weather Forecast

Today will be unsettled with convective flurries and possible sunny breaks. The big factor today will be wind loading by gusty, W'ly winds. On Thurs, continued snowfall will bring another 10cm with moderate to strong SW winds. Another 20cm expected on Friday with SW winds to 80km/hr. Freezing levels are expected to stay below the Pass level.

Snowpack Summary

15cm of snow overnight, with S'ly winds transporting and loading lees, will have formed new slabs. The Feb 14 layer, down ~50cm, is a crust everywhere but N aspects above 1600m where pockets of surface hoar may lurk. Tests indicate that interface is bonding, but as the load above it increases it may be a perfect bed surface for avalanches to run on

Avalanche Summary

While recent human triggered avalanche activity has been limited to sluffing in steep terrain, and pockets of reactive windslab in the alpine, there have been some close calls. In the region, cornices have been failing, providing large triggers. Generally they have not triggered avalanches, but cornices have triggered a few very large avalanches.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New snow and continued wind-transport have added to the wind slab problem. There have been close calls recently, and although likely to be small, wind slabs are most likely in terrain where a fall caused by an avalanche could have high consequences.

Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Dry

At low elevations the new snow is adding to loose, facetted snow sitting on a crust. Yesterday, fast sluffing while skiing steep pitches was reported. With the additional new snow these loose avalanches may gain enough mass to push you around.

Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2