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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 5th, 2013–Jan 6th, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

An end to this drought is in site for Tuesday!  Lots of people out ice climbing on Saturday as the skiing is getting rather grim in many places.   

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

The skies will get increasingly cloudy throughout the evening on Saturday as the ridge of high pressure begins to slide off to the east.  Temperature will become more seasonal and there is a chance of some trace precip over the next few days.  The next system that is expected to bring some more moderate snowfall is forecast to cross over the region on Tuesday but the winds accompaying this system are forecast to be intense.

Avalanche Summary

Field teams were in the Ghost regions and the Bow Valley regions ice climbing.  A few loose avalanches were observed on steep solar aspects, likely related to the daytime warming.

Snowpack Summary

LIttle change.  Surface hoar continues to grow under the influence of the cold clear nights.  Warm temps at upper elevations making a thin temperature crust on steep solar aspects.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Pockets of stiff windslabs are being found in Alpine terrain and isolated areas at treeline. Avoid steep unsupported features.  Ice climbers should watch for pockets of these slabs between pitches of routes.
Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be very cautious with gully features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Dry

Loose dry avalanches should be expected in extreme terrain where the snow has become weak and facetted (sugary). A few small solar induced slides were observed on Saturday in extreme terrain. 
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>The volume of sluffing could knock you over; choose your climb carefully and belay when exposed.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

Its easy to forget about this problem but don't forget about it just yet.  This basal crust will be the likely layer for some large avalanches.  It may be easier to trigger from thin or shallow snow pack areas so heads up in this type of terrain.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.>Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6