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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 17th, 2015–Jan 18th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Up to 20cm of snow is forecast to fall over the next 36hrs.  This will bury the surface hoar we have been talking about over the past week creating touchy conditions.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

15-20cm of new snow is forecast to fall over the next 24hrs with strong SW winds at higher elevations.  Temperatures will remain above seasonal with freezing levels around 1500m.  The forecasted new snow, warm temps and strong winds will create ideal conditions for storm slab development.

Avalanche Summary

Only a few loose dry avalanches were observed over the past 24hrs.

Snowpack Summary

We received about 5cm of new snow over the past 24hrs which is now burying the 0116 surface hoar layer.  This layer is widespread up to treeline then a bit more spotty in sheltered areas in the Alpine.  Below this layer, the snowpack is mainly facetted with very little structure.  The 1213cr is down 30-45cm but only being found below 2300m.  Moderate sheers persist on this interface on a layer of facets.  Deeper in the snowpack the 1106cr is still lurking.  This layer has not produced an avalanche in some time but with some load, we may see this interface come back to life.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Avalanche in the upper snowpack may step down to this deeper layer.  Field tests show a layer of facets on top of this crust producing moderate sheers.
Avoid cross loaded features.>Avoid unsupported slopes.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Storm Slabs

Strong winds combined with new snow and warm temps will create idea conditions for storm slabs to develop on the newly buried surface hoar.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Be careful in thin weak snowpack areas where you may be able to trigger this weakness.  Alpine terrain where the snowpack is extremely variable will be places to be "heads up"
Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 5