Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 8th, 2016 3:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

Alberta Parks matt.mueller, Alberta Parks

A series of inversions is on the forecast for the week end and early next week. How intense these will be remains to be seen. Keep an eye out for rising temperatures as you climb.

Summary

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

Tonight the wind will be from the west and average 20km/hr at 2500m The overnight low will be -13. Tomorrow will have a thin layer of cloud with sunny moments thrown in for good measure. The alpine temps will hopefully reach -12. Ridge winds will be from the west at 25km/hr. There is an inversion predicted for tomorrow, so be prepared for warmer temps in the alpine than the valley bottom. We're not sure how intense this inversion is going to be, watch for signs of warm air above. Melting snow on rocks and moist snow are all indicators of an inversion.

Avalanche Summary

Several loose dry avalanches (up to sz 1.5) were noted on N to S aspects today. A natural sz2 slab was noted on Mt Engadine. It was on a SW aspect, started in an alpine feature and entrained the facetted layers underneath. The suspected failure plain is a thin suncrust from the warm spell last week.

Snowpack Summary

After settlement, we were left with 8cm of new snow at most of our weather stations this morning. Some areas saw as little as 3cm. This snow has not seen any significant wind at any elevation. The only exception is near high alpine ridges where the local winds are amplified due to the terrain. Because of this, there may be localized storm slabs in immediate lee areas in the alpine. E & SE aspects are the aspects susceptible to this problem. Other than that, the storm snow has gained enough strength to keep the loose dry avalanches off the radar, atleast as long as the winds remain calm. Little change at treeline and below treeline. Windslabs are still in crossloaded terrain in the alpine. They are just barely buried under the new snow. Below treeline travel is still reasonable despite the cold temps last night. There is some surface faceting going on and we can expect that to become more pronounced as the cold nights persist.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
Some natural activity is telling us that the new snow is having a hard time bonding to the layers underneath. We are seeing activity on the sun crust in steep, solar terrain. These slabs are small, however they entrain lots of snow as they flow.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid steep Southerly aspects.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
We are mostly concerned with the older buried slabs in gully features & crossloaded terrain in the alpine. These slabs are small, however they will entrain lots of loose snow on their way down.
Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 9th, 2016 2:00PM

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