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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 9th, 2019–Feb 10th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

The newest wind slabs are likely to be small, but are just as likely to be reactive to human triggering. Keep your brain turned on as stability improves.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind effect is extremely variable

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear with cloudy periods. Alpine temperatures near -15C. Ridgetop winds moderate to strong from the northeast. SUNDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. Alpine temperatures near -13C. Ridgetop winds moderate from the east-northeast.MONDAY: Sunny. Alpine temperatures near -12C. Ridgetop winds moderate from the northeast.TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries, trace accumulation. Alpine temperatures near -12C. Ridgetop winds light gusting moderate from the southeast.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, a skier triggered a small (size 1) soft wind slab avalanche on a north aspect at 1550 m near Mt Hadden.A small (size 1) storm slab was triggered by a skier in the southeast of the region on Thursday. This occurred on a steeper (38 degree), convex, north-facing slope at 1300 metres. Although small, it highlights the potential for smaller, older storm slabs to react to skier triggering on suspect features.Reports from Wednesday showed explosives control yielding mainly small (size 1) wind slab releases in the Shames area. Several other recent small (size 1.5) natural wind slab releases were observed in alpine features in the Legate Peak area.Tuesday's reports showed more limited wind slab reactivity, with one smaller (size 1.5) wind slab triggered with a ski cut.

Snowpack Summary

In most areas, the upper snowpack is composed of successive layers of aging, wind affected storm snow layers. The top layer of this snow has been faceting (becoming sugary) under the influence of recent cold temperatures at all elevations. With recent southeast and northeast winds, thin wind slabs have developed in the lee of ridgecrests and other wind exposed features. Sheltered areas at lower elevations may still hold pockets of around 40 cm of low density snow which will overlie a thick melt-freeze crust at and below treeline.In the south of the region, the remainder of the snowpack is well-settled.Around Bear Pass and in the north of the region, there is a weak layer of feathery surface hoar crystals about 50 cm deep. This layer is likely most prominent in sheltered and shaded areas. Also in the north, a few weak layers may still exist within the middle and lower half of the snowpack. These include another layer of surface hoar around 70 to 100 cm deep and a layer of sugary faceted snow around 200 cm deep. These layers are a concern in thinner snowpack areas at higher elevations, where thicker, bridging layers of old storm snow and crust may be absent.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Outflow winds from the southeast and northeast have been scouring surface snow and packing it into thin wind slabs on lee slopes. Older, larger slabs are trending toward stabilizing but may react to human triggers on steeper, unsupported features.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2