Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Rugged travel, cold temps and short days make getting back to the car safely critical. Leave yourself lots of time to get out at the end of the day. A tweaked knee could turn into an epic if it happens just before dark.
Weather Forecast
High pressure from the North gives cold and clear weather through Monday evening.
Today: Sunny. Alpine High -10 C. Ridge wind moderate NE. Freezing level (Fzl) valley bottom.
Tonight: Clear with cloudy periods. Alpine Low -13 C. Ridge wind light NW.
Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine High -10 C. Ridge light SW. Fzl valley bottom.
Snowpack Summary
Outflow N'easterly wind is loading what little snow is available for transport in to lees. Last weeks storm gave heavy rain as high as 2400m, and over 50cm of snow accompanied by extreme W winds at upper elevations. The storm ended with a rapid cooling trend; refreezing the saturated snowpack and leaving a dusting of 5-10cm on the crusted surface.
Avalanche Summary
A large avalanche occurred yesterday in Cougar Corner #2 (a S facing path below treeline with a slabby start zone), this was suspected to have been a glide crack release.
A significant loose wet avalanche cycle occurred with the last storm with slides up to size 3; the debris from this is now refrozen and presents a significant hazard to skiers.
Confidence
Due to the number and quality of field observations
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Reverse loading from outlfow winds has built small pockets of windslab in immediate lees. These sit on a firm crust below 2400m.
- Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
- 996
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5
Storm Slabs
Heavy snowfall last week, accompanied by extreme westerly wind has formed slabs in the alpine. These slabs may remain active in the high alpine.
- The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2