Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

The lull before the next storm. This region can expect some light precipitation as a weak trough crosses the north.  

Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures near -4 with moderate wind from the southwest. Freezing levels valley bottom.

Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud with flurries. Alpine temperatures near -4 and ridgetop winds strong from the southwest. Freezing levels 500 m.

Thursday: Snow 5-10 cm with a strong southwest wind. Freezing levels 1000 m.

On Sunday a human triggered slab avalanche size 2 was reported which started as a wind slab or storm slab and then stepped down to the early December persistent weak interface. The person was caught and partially buried. Reports from Saturday continued to highlight the instability of slabs that have formed above the early December rain crust. Check out this notable step-down release from the Hankin-Evelyn area.

Friday's reports likewise suggested continued snow accumulations are keeping the snowpack near the tipping point. Check out Aaron's MIN here, and this one reporting whumfing (a really important obs about deeper layers). 

Please consider sharing your observations to the Mountain Information Network. Thank you to those that have already submitted this winter!

Successive rounds of light to moderate snowfall have given us 30-50 cm of recent snow. This was redistributed by recent southwest winds in exposed areas but likely remains lower density in more sheltered areas.

This recent snow sits on an early-December melt-freeze crust with weak and sugary faceted grains around it. This layer has featured in several avalanche reports that can be found on the MIN. This interface is currently reactive to human triggering and producing size 2 avalanches.

 

A crust that was buried in early November is near the base of the snowpack. This crust has weak facets associated with it. These facets have produced large avalanches in both the south and north of the region. Friday's reports of whumpfs suggest this layer should still play a role in guiding your terrain selection.

Snowpack depths vary substantially with aspect, elevation, and wind exposure. 

• Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
• If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
• Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
• In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.