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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 5th, 2014–Mar 6th, 2014
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Stormy weather is on the horizon! Weather models aren't in total agreement on how much snow will fall on Friday, but somewhere in the ballpark of 20-40 cm is a good guess. Either way, avalanche danger is on the rise.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries – around 5 cm. The freezing level is at the surface. Ridge winds are light to moderate from the S-SW. Friday: Moderate to heavy snowfall – 20-40 cm (heaviest along the coast). The freezing level climbs to 1200 m in the south and 500 m in the north. Winds are strong from the SW. Saturday: Moderate precipitation. The freezing level is between 1000 and 1500 m. Winds are moderate to strong from the SW.

Avalanche Summary

A few natural slab avalanches up to size 2.5 from solar aspects were reported in the northern part of the region on Tuesday. There's finally a weather change on the horizon! Expect conditions to start changing quickly on Friday and through the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Persistent strong outflow winds (from the northeast-southeast) have scoured windward slopes and created hard or dense wind slabs in exposed lee and cross-loaded terrain. Cold clear weather has also promoted surface hoar growth and surface faceting on shady slopes and a sun crust on steep solar aspects. The mid February weak layer of surface hoar or a crust/facet combo is buried 30-90 cm deep. There has been no reported activity on this layer recently, but watch for it to wake up when the weather pattern shifts to moist and mild heading into the weekend. Basal facets and/or depth hoar remain a concern in shallow snowpack areas in the northern part of the region.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Triggering the mid February persistent weakness is unlikely until the weather changes (Friday!). Caution is still recommended on higher north aspects. 
Whumpfing is direct evidence of a buried instability.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Wind Slabs

Strong easterly outflow winds continue to scour windward slopes and create hard wind slabs in areas that still have snow available for transport.
Avoid travelling in areas that have been reverse loaded by winds.>Watch for areas of hard wind slab in steep alpine features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4