Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Overnight and Tuesday:  Light precipitation is expected to be pushed onto the North Coast bringing 5-10 mm of precipitation to near coastal areas. The freezing level should drop to about 1500 metres and the Southwest winds should slow to about 20 km/hr as the precipitation starts.Wednesday: There is not good agreement between models with respect to forecast precipitation amounts for Wednesday. At this time there could be between 5-20 mm of precipitation that should fall as snow above 1000 metres.Thursday: Light precipitation combined with strong West – Southwest winds and freezing levels falling slightly to about 800 metres.

One recent size 3 and one size 2.5 natural slab avalanche was observed in the alpine in the Shames backcountry. Several size 1 natural avalanches were also observed on numerous aspects at treeline and below treeline. These avalanches most likely ran within the recent new snow.

Early season information coming from this region has been limited and significant spatial variability in snow depths likely exists across the region. Observations from the field suggest snow depths of approximately 130cm at treeline and 100cm at valley bottom in the Shames backcountry area.A recent storm has deposited roughly 30cm of new snow at treeline elevations. Associated strong winds and warm temperatures may have created slab conditions in the upper snowpack. Reports from the field suggest this new snow has been reactive to the weight of a rider. Limited observations also suggest the mid to lower snowpack is consolidated but keep in mind the snowpack is young and weaknesses (crusts, surface hoar or facets) may exist.