Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 12th, 2018–Feb 13th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Natural avalanches have slowed down but human triggering is still a real concern.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind speed and direction is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Wind, wind wind...Tuesday if forecast to be cloudy with scattered flurries and an alpine temperature of -6c.  The interesting part of Tuesday is that the wind will be westerly at 60km/h with gusts to 100km/h+

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed. Natural avalanches were still happening on Sunday so human triggering is still pretty high...

Snowpack Summary

A profile at 2200m showed the Jan. 18 surface hoar layer is down 40cm, Jan 6 surface hoar layer is down 60cm and the Dec 15 facets is down 90cm.  The surface hoar layers(Jan 18 and Jan 6) are not producing any test results.  The Dec 15 facets layer was producing a hard compression test and was sudden planar in nature on loose facets.  The November crusts have turned into facets at this elevation.  The bottom 70cm of the snowpack consists of facets which is about half of the snow pack at this elevation.The bigger concern is still for human triggering at tree line and in the alpine.  Tuesday is forecast for strong winds along with strong gusts; so I bet wherever there was no wind slab, there will be lots of it.  Stay tuned...

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Found at treeline and above up to 50cm thick. They are being found on all aspects due to reverse loading patterns of recent winds.
If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

Recent avalanche activity have stepped down with fractures up to 200cm thick
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3.5