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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 6th, 2018–Jan 7th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

The snowpack is changing due to the increase in winds. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the new fresh slabs will be a significant concern.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Steady winds overnight with a  stronger pulse early in the morning. By late tomorrow afternoon, the upper elevation winds will approach 100km/r from the west. No new snow is expected. Tomorrow's high temp will reach -8 at 2200m. A slight temperature inversion is also expected tomorrow.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new.

Snowpack Summary

Low down, the settlement from the past few warm days is quite noticeable. Unfortunately, the faceting in the mid to lower pack is still obvious. In many places, the snow has that distinct "upside down" feel to it. The exposed surface hoar  has begun to break down with the warmth. At treeline the winds have created widespread windslabs that are sitting on either weak facets, or in some isolated areas, the preserved surface hoar from Dec 15. The alpine now has windslabs on N-S aspects from today's moderate westerly winds. So far no layers have woken up, but during our field day today we had the feeling that the snowpack is changing for the worse.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

After today's wind,  it is safe to say we now have a widespread windslab  concern. Most alpine areas saw enough wind to form "triggerable" windslabs.
Avoid cross loaded features.Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2