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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 23rd, 2018–Jan 24th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

The best skiing and riding will be at and below treeline in sheltered locations. Be cognizant of large avalanches having the potential to run full path.

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud this morning, giving way to flurries this afternoon with accumulations of 2-4cm. Freezing levels should remain at valley bottom, with light to moderate winds out of the south. Tomorrow we're forecasted to receive another 15cm and 11cm for Thursday, with gradually rising freezing levels and strong winds.

Snowpack Summary

Over the last 2 weeks, we've seen consistent snowfalls totaling 135cm at TL with significant winds. Another 14cm fell last night with relatively cooler temps and lighter winds. Expect wind slabs and wind effect in the Alpine and exposed areas at TL. The Dec 15 layer is now buried over 1m, Jan 4th is down ~65cm and the Jan 16th is down ~50cm.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday's artillery control produced avalanches to size 3.5 and naturals to size 3, running full path to valley bottom out of steep extreme terrain. We're expecting natural activity to taper off today, but it will be still possible for isolated large natural avalanches to fail. Human triggered avalanches are probable on specific terrain features.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs will be most prevalent in areas exposed to the wind and steep unsupported convexities, where there's tension on the snowpack. Storm slabs triggered could step down to deeper layers.
If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Use caution in alpine lees. Recent snowfall mixed with wind loading has created storm slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

We are now in a lower likelihood/very high consequence scenario with the January 4th and the Dec 15th surface hoar layers. These layers should not be overlooked and could be sensitive to thin areas.
If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3