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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 28th, 2016–Mar 31st, 2016
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Waterton Lakes.

A widespread natural avalanche cycle is expected on Tuesday. Later in the forecast period, natural activity will taper off on cooler (high and shady) slopes, but conditions may be ripe for human triggering on many slopes.

Weather Forecast

A strong upslope moisture feed is causing heavy snowfall, easing Tuesday morning, then clearing.  Strong NE winds develop at treeline and alpine elevations tonight .  Around midday Tuesday, these ease to Moderate, then Light. Freezing Levels remain near valley floor until Wednesday, when above freezing temps at Treeline keep hazard elevated.

Snowpack Summary

40-55cm of new snow arrived today (Sunday), and will continue to fall through midday Tuesday.  The rapid rate of loading, and strong NE winds forecast overnight will consolidate this snow into a widespread Storm Slab problem.

Avalanche Summary

Heavy snowfall and poor visibility prevented observations of any avalanche terrain today. New snow was stubborn to sluffing on steep road cuts; however small Storm Slabs were observed peeling off many steep surfaces at valley bottom, such as roofs.  A nearby operation reported very touchy conditions, including large (Size 2) Loose Dry avalanches.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

These will be widespread, but most prevalent on S and W aspect lee slopes at Alpine and Treeline elevations. Sensitivity will increase with slope angle, and especially if temperatures approach 0 degrees, and/or / during strong sun.
Keep an eye out for reverse loading created by an upslope storm.Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of of strong sun, or heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

Natural Loose Dry avalanches are likely in steep terrain on Tuesday, while human triggered sluffing in more sheltered terrain will remain likely throughout the forecast period.
Avoid travelling under cliffs that are exposed to sluffing from above.Sluffs will be easy to trigger in steep terrain that is sheltered from the wind

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

On Wednesday and Thursday, warming temperatures, and some sun, will persuade the mountains to shed their new load of snow. Natural Loose Wet avalanches will be likely out of steep terrain, and may run far/fast on a crust.
Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2