Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 28th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Loose Wet and Wind Slabs.

Chris Gooliaff,

Glacier.

Cold, clear nights are needed to lock the low elevation snowpack (which has the consistency of oatmeal) in place.

Danger levels will rise with daytime warming and solar input.

Summary

Weather Forecast

The passage of warm rain will be followed by a brief clearing Tues, then back into a mix of flurries/showers with fluctuating freezing levels (FZL).

Tonight: Clearing, Alp low -7*C, FZL 600m

Tues: Mix of sun/cloud, Alp high -1*C, FZL 1900m, light S winds

Wed: Cloudy/scattered flurries, 5cm, Alp high -2*C, FZL 600m rising to 1700m, light SW winds

Snowpack Summary

A total of ~20cm new snow above 2000m. A buried crust exists up to 2200m on all aspects and extends into the alpine on solar aspects. Pockets of storm/wind slab in the alpine and into tree line. The March 11th crust is buried 50-80cm. Warm rain soaked the snowpack below tree line, preventing a crust recovery overnight.

Avalanche Summary

We are currently in a natural avalanche cycle, with rain to 2000m saturating slopes below tree line. Chunky, moist/wet debris has been observed "flowing" onto the fans of the avalanche paths.

Glide cracks are widening and moving; show them respect during the rain and warm temps.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Loose Wet

Warm temps and rain have weakened the low elevation snowpack. Cool temps Tues and Wed morning will temporarily pause this problem, but daytime warming will reignite this issue each day. Glide cracks have a higher likelihood of releasing in rain.

Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.
Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Wind Slabs

New snow, moderate SW winds, and mild temps are the perfect combination for forming fresh wind slabs in the alpine. Expect to find potentially reactive slabs if you can get to higher elevations.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.
Use caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Valid until: Mar 29th, 2022 4:00PM