Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cascades - East.
Use caution on slopes 35 degrees and steeper and where recent wind drifts have formed at upper elevations. Steer around loaded wind pillows on leeward terrain features near and above treeline. In the past week, storms brought significant snowfall and rain adding stress and new layers to the snow on the ground.
Discussion
On Wednesday, patrollers at Mission Ridge triggered a small avalanche in recent storm snow below treeline. Other observations in the zone have been limited. You'll find a major difference between the shallow snowpack in the Wenatchee Mountains and eastern foothills and the deeper parts of the region near to the Cascade Crest. Observers in neighboring forecast areas near Stevens and Washington Passes have reported widespread avalanches, including some that were very large and dangerously surprising. Check out the Stevens Pass forecast if you are heading to areas near the Cascade Crest such as Icicle Creek, the Teanaway and Salmon la Sac drainages. If you are going into the northern portion of the zone, near Holden Village, expect conditions more similar to Washington Pass. Rain fell to between 4,500-5,000ft on Tuesday.
Snowpack Discussion
New Regional Synopsis coming soon. We update the Regional Synopsis every Thursday at 6 pm.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Strong westerly wind has formed fresh drifts on leeward sides of ridges at the middle and upper elevations in the past couple days. These avalanches will be bigger and more dangerous at higher elevations. Avoid drifted features and leeward start zones near the top of ridges. You may find more significant recent wind effects in the Wenatchee Mountains. However, drifts could be deeper closer to the Cascade Crest, where more snow has fallen since January 3rd. Suspect that older weak layers of snow could produce surprising avalanches if you find less than 4 feet of snow on the ground or if you are in the northern portion of the zone.
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
You may be able to trigger avalanches where recent snow has accumulated in the past 24 hours or where you find lingering storm layers from the past couple of days. Avoid convex slopes and unsupported features. Use caution around slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Watch for stiffer snow, overlying softer snow. Use small test slopes and snowpack tests to look for recent storm layers in the top 1-2 feet of the snowpack.
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1