Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Waterton Lakes.
Weather Forecast
Tuesday: Cloudy with scattered flurries. Snowfall amounts 4cm. Alpine high -10, strong SW winds.Wednesday: Periods of snow. There is disagreement on amounts in the models but we may see up to 15cm. Moderate W winds, freezing level 1300m.Thursday: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Freezing level down to valley bottom with moderate W winds.
Snowpack Summary
25cm of recently wind affected snow is sitting on either a suncrust below 2000m on solar aspects or spotty surface hoar in sheltered areas between 1600 and 1900m. This may be a problem layer as we see more snow this week. The midpack is strong in deep snowpack areas, but the facets lingering at the bottom remain a concern in thinner areas.
Avalanche Summary
A forecasting trip up the Akamina parkway revealed several small loose dry avalanches out of steep rocky terrain. A skier in the Fernie backcountry triggered an avalanche failing on the same surface hoar layer we are seeing in the park but was able to ski out of it. With up to 20cm of snow in the forecast we may see similar activity on this layer.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Deep Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3