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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 14th, 2019–Jan 15th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: North Columbia.

A cooling temperature trend will improve snowpack stability. Depending on timing, south aspects in the alpine may still be affected by warm air and sunny skies. Watch for a moist snow surface, which is an indicator of a weakening snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear skies, light to moderate west winds, inversion conditions with above-freezing layer between 1900 m and 2300 m.TUESDAY: Mostly clear skies with valley clouds, light winds from southwest, alpine temperature up to 1 C, inversion conditions with above-freezing layer between 2300 m and 2500 m decreasing by the end of the day.WEDNESDAY: Increasing cloudiness, moderate southwest winds, alpine temperature around -5 C, freezing level below valley bottom.THURSDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries, moderate winds from southeast, alpine temperature -8 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous wet loose avalanches were triggered naturally on Sunday due to daytime warming and solar input. They were all large (size 2) released on steep south aspects.A few wind slab and storm slab avalanches were triggered naturally on Sunday. They were large (size 2 to 3), mostly on north and south aspects, and generally at treeline and alpine elevations.Finally, there was a large deep persistent slab avalanche (size 3-3.5) that was triggered with explosive on a southeast aspect in the alpine.

Snowpack Summary

On south aspects, warm air temperatures and sunny skies will continue to impact the snow surface at higher elevations where you will likely find moist snow during the day or a sun crust if it freezes. Wind slabs may still linger in lee and cross-loaded terrain features in alpine and exposed treeline terrain.The middle and lower portions of the snowpack are generally well-settled and strong. However, there still remain a few deeper weaknesses in the snowpack around treeline and alpine elevations. Professionals are still tracking a layer around 150 to 200 cm deep, composed of sugary faceted grains, feathery surface hoar, and a sun crust. The base of the snowpack may also still be composed of weak faceted grains. These layers would most likely be triggered by humans in areas where the snowpack is shallow.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs may still linger in lee and cross-loaded terrain features. Warm air and sunny skies may make wind slabs more reactive, particularly on south aspects at higher elevations.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Use caution as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

There have been a few recent large avalanches on deeper layers within the region.
Be aware of thin areas, where a triggered weak layer may propagate to deeper snowpack areas.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2.5 - 3.5