Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 26th, 2014 8:28AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet and Deep Persistent Slabs.

triley, Avalanche Canada

Northwest Inland.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Monday: Continued warm air at higher elevations overnight and Monday morning. The inversion is expected to break down Monday afternoon or evening bringing more seasonal alpine temperatures. Mostly cloudy during the day with light Southeast winds.Tuesday: Freezing levels are expected to continue to drop from about 1500 metres in the morning to about 1000 metres in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with light precipitation in the afternoon and Southwest winds building to moderate values.Wednesday: Cloudy with light precipitation and moderate Northwest winds.

Avalanche Summary

Reports of numerous loose wet avalanches releasing naturally from solar aspects at and above treeline up to size 1.5. Cornices are reported to be sagging and could trigger the persistent weak layers if they fall off during daytime warming.

Snowpack Summary

A report from the Bulkley Valley suggests that it is like a spring snowpack in the alpine. Solar aspects are reported to be wet and becoming isothermal in the top 15-30 cm. There appears to be little or no crust recovery overnight due to the warm air trapped at higher elevations. A new layer of surface hoar is growing in shaded areas on North aspects in the alpine. Basal depth hoar continues to be a concern; warm temperatures should encourage settlement in the long term, but may increase the likelihood of triggering this deeply buried weak layer in the short term.

Problems

Loose Wet

Clouds may reduce the effect of solar radiation and loose wet releases may become less touchy as freezing levels lower. There may not have been much crust recovery overnight, so it is a little early to let your guard down.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

Basal facets, buried surface hoar, and glide avalanches are all expected to become more sensitive to triggering with warm temperatures and solar radiation. Although tricky to pinpoint when and where they might occur, the consequences could be severe.

Avoid slopes with glide cracks.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin, rocky or variable snowpack.>Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

4 - 7

Valid until: Jan 27th, 2014 2:00PM