Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2017–Feb 15th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Freezing levels are forecast to climb into the alpine today.  Avoid sun exposed slopes this afternoon.

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud today with Southerly winds to 25km/h and freezing level clocking in as high as 2400m depending on the chosen forecast.  Wednesday a warm Pacific frontal system should reach us bringing upwards of 35cm by storm's end Friday.  Elevated freezing levels around 1800m. Winds will be light gusting to strong from the SW.

Snowpack Summary

Last week's storm snow is settling, however weak layers have still been observed 25cm and 60cm down. A surface crust has formed on steeper solar aspects and likely all areas below 1400m. Freezing levels rise to 2400m today along with potential for strong solar input. Cornices could fail from warming today and loose moist avalanches are likely.

Avalanche Summary

Only one small avalanche observed on the solar aspect of Mt Tupper yesterday. We should see steep solar aspects wake up today with moist surface avalanche activity from daytime warming and solar input.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The storm slab may become more sensitive to human triggering with rising freezing level to 2400m.  The other item to contend with will be the sun's  input on steep solar aspects warming the surface slab.
If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The Jan 25th sun crust is buried down approx 60cm.  Before last week's storm it was giving easy sudden planar results and was reactive to human triggering.  If the storm slab releases it has the potential to step down to this deeper weak layer.
Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Minimize exposure to steep, planer south facing Alpine slopes

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

Steep solar aspects are waking up today with thin surface point releases already being observed in Grizzly Bowl.  A good day to minimize exposure to solar aspects.
Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Avoid areas with overhead hazard.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2