Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 4th, 2015 8:00AM
The alpine rating is Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
, the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems includeA touchy storm slab is developing with continued light snowfall and moderate southerly winds. Danger will rise rapidly by Friday when we get hammered by a warm, pacific storm.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Today expect flurries, with accumulations up to 5cm. Moderate SW winds will continue to load lee slopes. Snowfall intensity will increase on Thursday, with up to 15cm of snow, gusty S'ly winds, and freezing levels rising to 1700m. Heavy snowfall is expected on Friday with up to 35cm of snow, and strong SW winds. Freezing levels rise to 1800m.
Snowpack Summary
30-50cm sits on the Jan 30 surface hoar/crust layer. Expect to find the Jan 30 crust up to 2200m. Snowpack tests indicate that the storm slab may bond poorly to the crust, which acts as a smooth bed surface. Jan 15 surface hoar layer is down 70-110cm and the December 17 is down 140-190 cm. Windloading will increase slab properties in lee areas.
Avalanche Summary
Yesterday, skiers accidentally triggered a size 2.5 avalanche from a SE aspect at 2120m. The avalanche propagated ~200m wide and ran up to 600m. Along the highway one size 3 and numerous size 2-2.5 natural avalanches were observed, occurring from all aspects generally above 1800m. Recent activity is occurring on the Jan 30 crust.
Confidence
Problems
Storm Slabs
At treeline and above a soft slab is forming which sits on a firm bed surface. This storm slab is triggerable, and may propagate widely. In areas sheltered from the wind the loose storm snow may sluff on steep slopes, gaining mass.
Use safe ski cutting techniques before entering ski run. Ski short pitches and regroup in safe spots.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
The January 15 surface hoar layer is down 70-110cm. Large triggers, like a cornice fall or other avalanches, are likely required to trigger this layer. Rapid loading forecast by Friday may reactivate this layer.
Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 5th, 2015 8:00AM