Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 3rd, 2014 8:05AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is high. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

chris gooliaff, Parks Canada

Glacier.

A natural avalanche cycle is occurring in Rogers Pass. Today is a great day to stay in the trees with no overhead hazard, or better yet, maybe head to the ski hill...

Summary

Weather Forecast

The cold front has passed through the area, and in its wake we should see unsettled conditions. Expect flurries, moderate W winds in the alpine, and freezing levels around 900m. By the weekend, skies should clear, temp's will likely drop, and the winds will shift to a more northerly flow.

Snowpack Summary

We received 40-50cm of storm snow in the last 24hrs in the alpine. Accompanying this were mild temp's and strong winds from the W, creating very touchy storm slabs. Although this fell on a generally settled snowpack, the Dec 8 and Nov 28 surface hoar/facet layers remain a concern. Avalanches could step-down to these layers with the new loading.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche control last night produced significant results, with numerous size 3-3.5's from Mount's Tupper and MacDonald. A possible size 4 from Tupper cleared out mature timber and deposited it on the road. Needless to say, this is likely happening in the backcountry as well.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs have formed at all elevations, likely up to a metre thick in alpine and tree-line lee areas. It will take a bit of time for these to settle into the snowpack.

The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Stay in the trees today.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Wind Slabs

Older wind slabs buried on various weak layers linger below all the new snow. These slabs have the potential to fail with the new, heavy load.

Avoid areas with overhead hazard.Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The heavy trigger may have arrived with this latest dump. Large avalanches are occurring, and may be stepping-down to this deeper layer.

Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Avoid lingering in runout zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Jan 4th, 2014 8:00AM