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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 3rd, 2014–Jan 4th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

A natural avalanche cycle is occurring in Rogers Pass. Today is a great day to stay in the trees with no overhead hazard, or better yet, maybe head to the ski hill...

Weather Forecast

The cold front has passed through the area, and in its wake we should see unsettled conditions. Expect flurries, moderate W winds in the alpine, and freezing levels around 900m. By the weekend, skies should clear, temp's will likely drop, and the winds will shift to a more northerly flow.

Snowpack Summary

We received 40-50cm of storm snow in the last 24hrs in the alpine. Accompanying this were mild temp's and strong winds from the W, creating very touchy storm slabs. Although this fell on a generally settled snowpack, the Dec 8 and Nov 28 surface hoar/facet layers remain a concern. Avalanches could step-down to these layers with the new loading.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche control last night produced significant results, with numerous size 3-3.5's from Mount's Tupper and MacDonald. A possible size 4 from Tupper cleared out mature timber and deposited it on the road. Needless to say, this is likely happening in the backcountry as well.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs have formed at all elevations, likely up to a metre thick in alpine and tree-line lee areas. It will take a bit of time for these to settle into the snowpack.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Stay in the trees today.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Wind Slabs

Older wind slabs buried on various weak layers linger below all the new snow. These slabs have the potential to fail with the new, heavy load.
Avoid areas with overhead hazard.Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The heavy trigger may have arrived with this latest dump. Large avalanches are occurring, and may be stepping-down to this deeper layer.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Avoid lingering in runout zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4