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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 20th, 2015–Mar 21st, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Avalanche hazard will increase with new snow, winds and warmer temperatures . Choose conservative objectives during this time of change.

Weather Forecast

A pacific low will be moving inland today bringing light precipitation to the Rogers Pass area.  Accumulation of 8cm of snow for higher elevations and rain below 1900m.  Moderate SW winds with gusts to 50km/hr will help redistribute new snow in lee areas.  Freezing levels remain at 1800m tonight as light precipitation continues into Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15cm of new snow has buried, and concealed a variety of surfaces from sun crusts to reactive windslabs. The upper snowpack is a complex mix of crusts, weak facetted snow and surface hoar. Below 1900m the snowpack is spring-like with a weak melt-freeze crust forming overnight. Rain at lower elevations will destabilize the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Several avalanches were reported in the Connaught Creek drainage from the north side of Mt Cheops, running half fan. A small natural cycle was observed in the highway corridor with 3 slab avalanches size 2- 2.5, beginning in high aline start zones and terminating mid-fan with moist deposits.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow continues to load the storm layer which is up to 40cm deep.  In exposed lee areas, buried wind slabs within the storm snow will be difficult to identify visually.  New  snow, wind and warm temperatures will increase the hazard.
If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

The upper snowpack is complex, with a multitude of crusts, weak facetted layers, and surface hoar. Large slab avalanches continue to sporadically occur on these layers. Cornices are large and fragile and if they fail provide a large trigger.
Choose well supported terrain without convexities.Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Loose Wet

At lower elevations the snowpack is weak and spring like. Warm overnight temperatures have prevented a solid overnight freeze. Forecasted rain  at lower elevations will rapidly weaken the snowpack.
Minimize exposure to avalanche terrain during periods of rain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2