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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2017–Jan 16th, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Purcells.

One more day of cool weather until rising temperatures elevate the danger.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Flurries starting in the afternoon with 5-10 cm of new snow, moderate southwest winds increasing throughout the day, alpine temperatures around -5 and increasing overnight.TUESDAY: Flurries continuing throughout the day with another 5-10 cm of new snow, moderate southwest winds, freezing level rising to around 1600 m (and warmer to the north).WEDNESDAY: Flurries with another 5-10 cm, moderate south winds, freezing level rising to around 1800 m (and warmer to the north).

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche reports from the weekend included several size 1 loose dry avalanches on solar aspects, and a few isolated size 1.5 wind slabs triggered on northeast aspects by explosive and natural triggers. Larger wind slabs (up to size 2.5) were triggered earlier in the week by explosive control.On Monday, expect wind slabs to remain reactive to human triggers on a variety of aspects.

Snowpack Summary

15 to 30 cm of recent snow has formed reactive wind slabs on a variety of aspects. These wind slabs rest on an old surface consisting of old wind slabs in exposed terrain, surface hoar in sheltered terrain, and widespread "sugary" facets. The layer of facets from mid-December is still reactive to snowpack tests in isolated areas, but is generally considered to be dormant during this period of cold, dry conditions. This may change as the air temperature begins to rise as warm air floods into the region Monday night.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Lingering wind slabs can be found on a variety of aspects and may become sensitive to human triggering with warming temperatures.
Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.Wind direction has changed recently. Watch for slabs on all aspects.Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2